By PalmettoBallot
2026
COLUMBIA, S.C. — Columbia, SC An analysis of county-level turnout data across all 13 general elections from 2000 through 2024 shows that South Carolina's voters show up in presidential years and stay home in midterms, a pattern so consistent that it has held in every single one of the state's 46 counties, in every cycle, for a quarter century.
A 21-point canyon
Across the seven presidential cycles from 2000 to 2024, South Carolina averaged 70.6% turnout of registered voters, according to the State Election Commission. Across the six midterm cycles in between, that figure collapsed to 49.4%, a gap of roughly 21 percentage points.
The magnitude of that gap is easier to appreciate year by year.
Presidential years: 2008 (76.0%), 2024 (75.2%), 2020 (72.1%), 2004 (70.5%), 2012 (68.9%), 2016 (67.9%), 2000 (63.3%).
Midterm years: 2002 (54.6%), 2010 (51.9%), 2022 (50.9%), 2018 (50.0%), 2006 (45.0%), 2014 (43.8%).
The worst presidential year on record, 2000 at 63.3%, still beats the best midterm year on record (2002, at 54.6%) by nearly nine points. The two cycles do not overlap. They do not come close.
The Obama to Tea Party drop
The sharpest single-cycle-to-cycle collapse occurred between 2004 and 2006, when turnout fell 25.5 points in two years, from a Bush-versus-Kerry level of 70.5% to a midterm trough of 45.0%. Close behind were 2012 to 2014, a 25.1-point drop, and 2008 to 2010, a 24.1-point drop, as the Obama coalition that pushed turnout to an all-time high of 76.0% did not return for the first midterm of his presidency.
The smallest drop-off, by contrast, occurred between 2000 and 2002 (8.7 points) and between 2016 and 2018 (17.9 points). In the most recent cycles, 2020 to 2022, turnout fell 21.2 points.
The high-water mark: November 2008
The single highest statewide turnout in the dataset belongs to 2008, at 76.0% of registered voters. But 2024 came remarkably close, at 75.2%, making the Obama and Trump eras bookend elections with the two highest participation rates South Carolina has seen this century. Both cleared the 2020 figure of 72.1%, which was itself the previous runner-up.
At the other extreme, 2014 holds the modern low water mark at 43.8%, narrowly edging out 2006 (45.0%) for the lowest turnout of any general election since 2000.
Which counties swing hardest?
Every one of South Carolina's 46 counties votes more in presidential years than in midterms. But the size of that swing varies considerably.
The counties with the largest presidential to midterm gap, meaning voters there are most likely to sit out non presidential elections, are concentrated in the Pee Dee and Upstate: Dillon County at a 22.6 point gap (60.4% presidential, 37.8% midterm), followed by Spartanburg County at 22.2 points, York County at 21.6 points, Barnwell County at 21.4 points, and Lancaster County at 21.3 points.
The counties with the smallest gap, the most reliably engaged across all cycles, cluster in the Midlands: Richland County at a 16.3-point gap, Fairfield County at 16.5 points, McCormick County at roughly 16 points, Saluda County at 17.1 points, and Lexington County at 17.6 points.
Put differently: a Dillon County voter is about 40% more likely to vote in a presidential year than in a midterm. A Richland County voter is only about 32% more likely.
McCormick and Dillon: the two extremes
Two small counties anchor opposite ends of the turnout spectrum.
McCormick County, with its roughly 7,500 registered voters, posted the highest average presidential turnout of any county in the state (73.7%) and the highest average midterm turnout (above 58%). It is the closest thing South Carolina has to a consistently voting county, regardless of what is on the ballot.
Dillon County, with about 17,500 registered voters, sits at the other end of both measures. Its 37.8% average midterm turnout is the lowest in the state, its 60.4% average presidential turnout is the second lowest, and the chasm between them is the widest in South Carolina.
2024: one of the strongest showings on record
At 75.2%, South Carolina's 2024 presidential turnout came within a point of the 2008 record, exceeded 2020 by 3.1 points, and topped the 25-year presidential average by nearly five points. Combined with a registered voter base that has grown substantially since 2000, the state set a record for the largest raw presidential ballot count in 2024.
Whether 2026 will continue the post-2016 pattern of a less severe midterm drop-off or revert to the 20-plus-point collapse that characterized 2006, 2010, and 2014 is the open question. What the data does not leave open is the underlying structure: in South Carolina, the presidential and midterm electorates are effectively two different groups, and they have been for as long as the numbers have been recorded this way.
Note: Statewide turnout figures from the South Carolina State Election Commission Voter Participation History, covering all 13 general elections from 2000 through 2024. County level comparisons based on a county-by-county turnout dataset covering the same period; readers should note that county registered voter totals may differ modestly from SCEC statewide active registrant figures due to differences in how registration rolls are tallied.