By PalmettoBallot
2026
COLUMBIA, S.C. — Henry McMaster’s first full victory for governor in 2018 gave Democrats a reason to believe South Carolina might still offer openings in the right environment. Four years later, those hopes had largely disappeared. McMaster nearly doubled his margin in 2022, and county-by-county returns suggest the state is continuing to trend further right ahead of an open-seat race in 2026.
2018: A Manageable Margin for Republicans
When McMaster defeated Democrat James Smith in 2018, he did so by just over eight points, winning 53.96% to 45.92%. In a state as Republican as South Carolina, that result was respectable but not overwhelming.
Smith ran a serious campaign and remained competitive across far more of the state than many expected. McMaster carried Calhoun County by fewer than 40 votes. Dillon County went Democratic by less than one point. Clarendon, Darlington, and Florence were all decided by single digits.
Even in suburban counties Republicans typically rely on, such as Beaufort, Berkeley, and Dorchester, McMaster’s margins remained relatively modest, mostly in the low to mid-50s.
The overall map reflected the familiar shape of modern Southern politics: Republicans dominating rural and Upstate South Carolina, Democrats holding heavily Black counties in the Midlands and Lowcountry, and suburban areas around Charleston, Greenville, and Spartanburg remaining at least somewhat competitive.
While Democrats were still underdogs statewide, 2018 suggested they could make the right race uncomfortable.
2022: Republicans Pull Away
That changed quickly in 2022. McMaster defeated Joe Cunningham 58.04% to 40.67%, winning by nearly 17 points and more than 295,000 votes. The result far exceeded expectations, particularly in a cycle when Democrats had hoped for a stronger showing nationally.
What made the victory notable was not just the size of the margin, but also the breadth of the improvement. McMaster increased his vote share in 44 of South Carolina’s 46 counties. On average, counties shifted roughly five points toward Republicans.
The movement was not isolated to one part of the state.
Dorchester County, one of the fastest-growing parts of the Charleston metro, moved nearly 5 points to the right despite Democratic arguments that migration would gradually make the county more competitive. York County, tied economically to Charlotte and one of the Southeast’s fastest-growing suburban counties, also shifted right. Berkeley County followed the same pattern.
The suburban realignment that has benefited Democrats in states like Georgia and North Carolina has yet to emerge in South Carolina in any meaningful way.
Cunningham, despite his profile as a former congressman who won a Republican leaning district in 2018, failed to replicate that crossover appeal statewide. He ran more than five points behind Smith’s 2018 performance, lost ground in traditionally competitive counties, and failed to make up enough margin even in Democratic friendly areas.
South Carolina’s Political Geography Is Hardening
Taken together, the 2018 and 2022 results show a state whose political map is becoming more red.
Upstate counties such as Pickens, Oconee, and Cherokee are now overwhelmingly Republican and effectively out of reach for Democrats in statewide contests. McMaster carried each with more than 74% of the vote in 2022. Horry County has also continued its rightward movement. Home to Myrtle Beach and a growing retiree population, it gave McMaster 69.4% in 2022, up from 65.1% in 2018.
Democrats retain strength in a limited set of counties, but their coalition remains geographically concentrated. Richland County gave McMaster just 32.2% in 2022. Orangeburg held him to 36.3%. Allendale gave him only 30.9%.
Those margins are substantial, but those counties alone are not large enough to offset Republican strength elsewhere.
Charleston County remains the one major bright spot for Democrats. Cunningham won 55.7% there in 2022, making it the strongest Democratic performance in any large county across either gubernatorial cycle.
Still, Charleston alone is not enough.
For Democrats to be truly competitive statewide, Charleston must be the foundation, not the entire strategy.
2026: Open Seat, Same Fundamentals
Because McMaster is term-limited, 2026 will mark South Carolina’s first open gubernatorial race since 2010. That removes the advantage of incumbency and introduces some uncertainty, but not enough to change the state’s underlying political fundamentals.
Republicans enter the race as clear favorites. The main question is not whether the GOP can hold the governorship, but who emerges from what could be a competitive Republican primary. Without an incumbent to unify the field, internal divisions could become more visible.
For Democrats, the challenge is more structural. The path to competitiveness still exists, but it is narrow. To seriously contend in 2026, Democrats would likely need to at least replicate James Smith’s 2018 coalition by:
Running up large margins in Richland and Charleston Counties
Maximizing turnout in heavily Black Lowcountry and Midlands counties
Cutting into Republican advantages in suburban counties like Beaufort, Berkeley, Dorchester, and York
Even then, that may only be enough to keep the race close.
Final Takeaway
The data from South Carolina’s last two gubernatorial elections point in one direction: the state has continued moving right, across nearly every region.
Population growth and suburban expansion have not produced the kind of Democratic gains seen in neighboring states. Instead, Republicans have strengthened their position while Democrats remain concentrated in a handful of counties.
That does not make 2026 irrelevant. Open-seat races can produce surprises, and candidate dynamics matter.
But barring a major political shift, the Republican nominee will begin the race as the favorite, and the most consequential battle may occur in the GOP primary, not the general election.